英國留學

          適合十二星座的家裝風格 風格各異的家，總是留給我們甜美溫馨的回歸欲望，它或繽紛，或 素雅，或繁雜，或簡約，在溫暖窗幔，柔軟沙發和燈影中凸現情趣，張揚個性。以下就是我們推薦的最適合十二星座的家裝風格。適合金牛座的家裝風格 擁有田園詩和古典氣質的金牛座，如有閑情，大可接受這種中式懷舊風格。博古架和仿古櫃的茶几以及牆上傳統的油亮字畫，是整個屋子的亮點。再 住商房屋配合桃木沙發以及素色的地毯，清雅的氣息撲面而來。而亮白色的沙發和紅白的靠墊增加了活潑感，褶皺的窗簾也增加了不可多得的現代感，令主人的高品位凸現眼前。整個裝飾，給人寧靜而舒適的感覺，適合內心安靜，外表和諧的金牛座人。 適合雙子座的家裝風格 個性活潑淘氣的雙子座人，永遠有顆不安分的心，雙?房屋二胎l座的家裝最好追求和諧的歸屬感和溫暖的舒適感，不刻意營造典雅氣息。顏色搭配上，選用素咖啡色和牛奶白色，陳設也力求簡單平衡，抽象派的畫作能令創意滿滿的雙子座內心愉悅，空間通透也能增加他們靈感的自由發揮，總之，雙子座人並不在意生活的重壓，只想有個能令自己有所向往的家，倒頭便睡的床。 適合巨蟹座的家裝風格 巨 西服蟹的生活情趣在於家的溫馨，他們的享樂主義也是建立在家的濃情暖意上，因此，花大量的時間在家裝上以此完美自己心中的家的形象對他們而言是一件天大的樂事，充滿生機的假山池點綴有青蔥的綠意，仿架橋的通道增加了小橋流水般田園詩的美感，在顏色上選用檸檬黃或者乳白的顏色來增加溫馨感，最不能忽視的是燈光的選用，它所營造的氣氛常常能令 房地產巨蟹座人陶醉其中，對他們而言，無論去往何方，家都是天堂。 適合獅子座的家裝風格 獅子座人天生有張揚的氣質和奪目的出位感，紅色皮質沙發以及紅色的牆壁都能馬上抓住人的視線。仿熱帶植物有著獅子座的熱情和通透。獅子座是直言不諱的星座，個性張揚中自有可愛和單純的味道，因此空間處理上常常選用通透的大空間或者透明的隔簾，並不有意隔開客廳與臥室的視線 室內設計。在燈光選擇上，也以大氣明亮為主，突出主人大方而熱烈的個性。 適合處女座的家裝風格 處女座是穩重內斂的星座，對於家居的要求卻絲毫不怠慢。有著完美主義的他們，在家裝風格上塑造高貴而知性的美感，色調厚重卻不乏溫情。綠色植物的裝點也給屋子增加了生氣。同樣是大而重疊的落地窗簾，咖啡色的外簾襯出純白色的內簾，如同處女座人矜持外表下和暖的內心。粉紅和咖啡的配合使?個人信貸o沙發有了浪漫的味道，蔓紅色花朵的點綴讓靠墊多了小女人的甜美。 適合天坪座的家裝風格 唯美而力求平衡的天秤座人，在客廳的佈置上，會連地板的配合色彩也算進去哦。裝有大面鏡字使得整個空間非常通透，橘色的沙發是和諧裝飾中最大的亮點，現代而不失溫暖。窗簾選用半透明的幔布，內襯細紗簾增添飄逸和浪漫的美感。擺放在落地鏡前的綠暖棕，在對襯中重疊了綠色，使得房子如同叢林裏的小屋， 結婚由於整個空間的質地和色彩均選用一致，使得燈光打出時營造出上下一體的對稱感，符合天秤心中的平衡審美標準。 適合天蠍座的家裝風格 涇渭分明，神秘低調的內心使得天蠍的家裝風格有著獨到的色彩。黑白相間處透出高貴的質感，綠色大株植物是整個廳室的唯一裝飾，簡約風格又得到發揮。天蠍座隱匿的內心使得他們相當注重自己的隱私，因此紅褐色的布簾讓燈光反襯出悠遠而暗淡的氣息。空間顯得有些隱晦，卻散發 票貼抵不住的誘惑，誰知道天蠍會在這樣的居室中的隱秘行蹤呢。 適合射手座的家裝風格 十二星座中，數射手座人最激情好動，好玩好樂的他們總是以天為家，以地為樂，自然在家裝上不費太大周折，簡約，COOL，和冷雅便是最好的詮釋。房間採用深藍的主色，遍及沙發和窗簾，並有暗緊色暗紋點綴其中，最惹眼的恐怕要數錯亂排列的高腳魚缸，趣致而令人驚喜。射手好自然的博大，好生物的活力，因此，這樣獨特的裝飾出現在射手家裏可是絲毫不 辦公室出租奇怪的哦。 適合魔羯座的家裝風格 現實而理性的魔羯，不苛求家具的繁華氣息，寧靜，明亮，簡單是他們追求的風格。原木家具搭配白色沙發是最好的選擇。在茶几選擇上，注重功能性和實用性，同樣摒棄駁雜的風格，到是沙發後面的彩色抽象畫令整個空間多了活潑的色彩。這樣的房間，最適合暖冬的陽光射進來，溫暖. .msgcontent .wsharing ul li { text-indent: 0; } 分享 Facebook Plurk YAHOO! 系統傢俱  .

          家庭保健~其他影響全身的疾病 【過敏】1.屋內及車內均使用空調設備。2.安裝空氣清淨機。3.添購除濕機。4.用殺菌劑擦拭潮濕的地方。5.隔離寵物，特別是貓的毛屑。6.從事可能接觸過敏原的工作時，應戴面罩。7.在床墊及枕頭上加裝塑膠套，以避免吸入藏匿在枕頭或床裏的小蟲。8.避免使用固定式地毯，改用小地毯較易清洗整理。9.使用人工合成的枕頭，方便清洗。10.常用熱水洗 九份民宿床單，可以有效防止蝨子。【疲勞】1.每天早晨多給自己十五分鐘，就不會匆忙的展開一天。2.吃三件式早餐，即包括碳水化合物（醣類）、蛋白質及脂質，勿以過甜的食物為早餐，可能造成精神緊張坐立難安。3.花時間計畫當天目標，但應量力而為。4.若有無法解決的問題，請暫時遠離。5.關掉電視，以閱讀取代 澎湖民宿較好。6.運動可以給予能量，快步走路是不錯的選擇，但睡前二小時進行不宜運動。7.運動不宜過量。8.一次解決一件事情。9.服用綜合維他命。10.調整生理時鐘，使其符合正常作息。11.戒煙。12.盡量起身走動。13.學習拒絕，特別是在繁忙時，應該婉拒其他的委託。14.減肥。15.避免睡得太多。16.避免開夜車，不要犧牲睡眠時間。17.若睡眠品質不佳， 清境可在每日固定時間小睡片刻。18.深呼吸。19.避免喝太多酒。20.午餐應清淡。21.也可將午餐當作一天的主餐，好好補充一番後去散步二十分鐘， 記得要攝取較易燃燒的食物，如醣類。22.偶爾去渡個假吧！23.少發脾氣，可節省力氣。24.將環境佈置得生氣盎然，綠色有助於長期維持注意力並排除分心。25.聽聽音樂提神。26.設定目標，督促自己前進。27.沖涼澡可幫助恢愎體?汽車美容O。28.補充水分可防止虛脫，避免引起疲勞。29.避免不必要的藥物。30.改變某些習慣，如不同的飲食內容或運動項目。31.不要攝取太多含咖啡因的食物。32.樂觀、積極、自信都可增進個人的體能狀況。【發燒】1.補充液體，如果菜汁、藥草茶、花茶等。2.以濕冷毛巾敷身體。3.以海綿擦拭全身。4.泡溫水澡。5.很痛時應服用止痛藥。6.依身體反應穿衣服，不宜過多，以利散熱，但也 洗車不可太少以免寒冷。7.調節室內溫度，保持柔和光線。8.除了補充水分，想吃什麼就吃什麼。9.飲食後三十分鐘才測量體溫，較為準確。10.將體溫計含於舌下的凹陷處，可量到體內的核心溫度。11.以嘴唇固定溫度計，而非牙齒。12.量體溫時應以鼻呼吸，而不是以口呼吸。13.量體溫應含於舌下至少三分鐘。14.五歲的幼兒應以肛溫代替口溫，但肛溫通常較口溫高一度。15.若溫度計不小心在嘴內 鍍膜或肛門內斷裂，請取出後擦外傷藥即可，除非未找到所有的玻璃碎片。16.溫度計不宜用熱水清洗。【中暑】1.避開烈日。2.多喝水。3.喝稀釋的電解質飲料。4.避免以鹽錠劑補充鹽分。5.避免酒精。6.避免咖啡因。7.勿抽煙。8.慢慢適應氣溫的轉變。9.從事戶外活動應放慢速度。10.過於炎熱時可以冷水沖淋頭部及頸部，當水分蒸散時可幫助散熱。11.中暑可能在連續幾天內逐漸地虛脫，如有體重在數天內直線下降的情 翻譯社況，應加以留意。12.戴帽子可減緩頭頸吸熱的速度，特別是禿頭或逐漸禿頭的人。13.勿打赤膊，以免吸收更多的輻射熱，通風的汗衫反而有消暑的作用。14.選擇淺色的衣服，棉花及聚酯合成的衣物最為透氣。15.一旦中暑，請為患者潑水，將患者移到有冷氣的地方，如果患者意識清楚，則給予補充水分，再以冷毛巾濕敷患者。【宿醉】1.喝果汁可加速酒精代謝，柳橙汁及蕃茄汁更宜。2.吃餅乾及蜂蜜，可清除殘存的酒精。3.服用止 房地產痛藥，如阿斯匹靈，但不要服用太強的止痛藥，以免上癮。4.喝肉湯，可補充體內流失的鹽及鉀。5.補充水分。6.服用綜合維他命Ｂ。7.服用胺基酸膠囊。8.喝些咖啡。9.飲食均衡。10.等待一段時間就可以恢愎正常。11.預防宿醉最好是慢慢的喝酒，喝得愈慢腦子吸收的酒精量愈少，飽腹時喝也可減少宿醉。12.不同的酒有不同的症狀，伏特加等白酒較好，康涅克、白蘭地、威士忌、紅酒及各種香檳都不好。13.避免有氣泡的飲料，除了香檳以外，蘭姆酒及?永慶房屋i樂汽水等都會加速酒精進入血液。14.體重愈少者，能喝的酒就愈少。【體臭】1.用香皂及清水洗淨身體。2.常換洗衣服。3.選擇天然織品吸汗效果較好。4.使用殺菌香皂。5.止汗劑可掩蓋腋下的汗臭。6.使用天然松香皂。7.注意飲食，少吃魚類、小茴香、蒜頭、咖哩粉等物。8.保持心情平靜，性衝動或緊張焦慮都會使排汗增多。 .msgcontent .wsharing ul li { text-indent: 0; } 分享 Facebook Plurk YAHOO! 裝潢  .

          羅東夜市～人氣小吃【米糕陳】 來到羅東夜市，走到屈臣氏的前面，就會有一股香噴噴的米糕味撲鼻而來。是的！這就是在當地已有二十一年歷史 居酒屋的米糕攤子～【米糕陳】的米糕香啦！　 當初米糕陳是以捕魚起家，後來轉 澎湖民宿行改賣粽子，進而轉變到今日所賣的米糕，米粉炒與四神湯等等....... 當然首先我們一定要先 土地買賣介紹米糕陳的米糕囉!米糕陳所製作米糕的米是使用高品質的台東皇帝米，它的成本較高，但是蒸出來的米糕卻是特 保濕面膜別的紮實與香Ｑ！ 然後在搭配上老闆精心滷出的滷肉醬與甜醬，再搭配肉鬆與香菜！ （這是老闆的滷肉醬） （再看看這就是老 開幕活動闆獨門配方的甜醬喔！） 即成為米糕陳的主力商品～好吃的人氣王（米糕）！ 除了香Ｑ扎實的米糕飯外，當然也不能錯過另一項的人氣商品喔?景觀設計I你知道是什麼嗎？ 是的！你猜對了！那就是好好吃的米粉炒！ 米粉炒的醬料跟米糕一樣，但不說你們可能不知道，這米粉可是有學問的喔！他是用當天的在來米製作， 室內設計然後在送到攤子上來賣，所以保證新鮮，而且口感十足喔！ 當然在吃米糕或是米粉時，可別忘記叫一碗湯來搭配一下喔！ 在此肯吉要推薦各位吃吃米糕陳這裡湯類的龍頭老大～四 酒店兼職神湯 看看這裡的四神湯，清甜的湯汁加上薏仁、淮山、蓮子、茯苓、芡實、大腸等料，保證是真材實料喔！ 來此只要來碗米糕或是米粉，然後再來一碗四神湯，保證讓你能夠滿足你的胃，使你十 室內裝潢分的滿足喔！ 於物價高漲的現代，在夜市可花少錢，享受到真材實料的機會已經不多囉！下次來到羅東夜市，可別忘記來嚐嚐看喔！ 【米糕陳】 位置說明:羅東夜市/興東路與民權路屈臣氏門口 營業時間:18:00~06:00 有巢氏房屋  .

          搓草繩機服役 宜蘭冬山珍珠社區 「金」罕見 傳統手工搓草繩的技藝，在民國60年代以後，被搓草繩機取代，機器搓出來的草繩比較扎實、均勻，但沒多 節能燈具久就被大量問世的塑膠繩取而代之，這些機器只能束之高閣。宜蘭縣冬山鄉珍珠社區?房屋貸款擘s稻草工藝，特地蒐購兩部可以各搓出細、粗兩種草繩的機器，至今仍在「服役」。 蒐購2部 推廣 澎湖民宿稻草工藝 珍珠社區發展協會總幹事李後進說，他今年虛歲55歲，在他印象中，念國小的時候，還經常幫家人搓草繩，搓 591草繩的技術不差，當時每家戶不論男女、大人小孩，多半都會搓草繩，由於搓草繩用的稻稈在農村社會隨處可得，材料不用多花錢，技術 賣屋好的，還可以靠搓草繩賺點外快。 他依稀記得，上國中之後就很少手工搓草繩，因為當時就有搓草繩機問世，草繩不論手工或是機器搓，都是用兩股稻稈 婚禮佈置搓成，搓草繩機設計一端必須用人工送稻稈進到機器裡，另一端搓好的草繩就會捲成一捆，送稻稈的動作必須兩人合作，不能有所差池，否則就會停機從還沒失誤前再來一次?景觀設計C 但搓草繩機風光沒多久，塑膠繩就大量問世，價格便宜的塑膠繩立刻取代草繩，許多機器後來都被當廢鐵賣，即使有人放在倉庫裡，也都因年久失修，無法再用了，珍珠社區當初在推廣稻草 ARMANI工藝時，費了一番工夫到外鄉鎮去蒐購，終於找到修復後堪用的兩部搓草繩機，可以分別搓出粗、細兩種草繩。 老機器 為社區賺鈔票 李後進說，現在要找這款搓草繩機恐怕難上加難，社區工藝師兩人合作使 土地買賣用搓草繩機，必須花上一個上午的時間，才能搓出一大捆價格約千元的草繩，這些草繩除被社區用來做工藝品、裝置藝術，也有人向社區預訂，沒想到這些老機器還「老當益壯」，為社區賺進不少錢。 (轉載97.08.25自由時報 租房子)  .

          對付衣物各種污漬．統整 ＊醬油漬１．首先把沾上污漬的地方用水浸濕，然後再撒上白糖，用手揉搓。可以看到醬油跡已經沾到了白糖上，然後用水清洗。２．在沾有醬油漬的地方塗上蘇打粉，10分鐘後用清水洗淨，即可。３．把新鮮的蓮藕切開，將藕汁塗在醬油跡處，10分鐘後水中清洗。４．以沾水的布巾來拍打汙垢部位， 結婚西裝若碰到很難纏的情形，可先在污垢處撒上痱子粉，待其將污垢吸附後，再用刷子刷去爽身粉，再用溼布擦拭。. ＊草漬把1000克水倒入容器中，加入１００克食鹽攪勻，將沾有草漬的衣服放入盆中泡10分鐘，再將衣服清洗，您會發現，輕輕鬆鬆就把頑固的?景觀設計騢{洗掉了。＊血跡１．剛沾染上時，應立即用冷水或淡鹽水洗，再用肥皂或10％的碘化鉀溶液清洗。（禁用熱水，因血內含蛋白質，遇熱會凝固，不易溶化）２．用白蘿蔔汁或搗碎的胡蘿蔔拌鹽，或用蘿蔔切口拍打衣物上的血跡處。３．用10％的酒石酸溶液來揩拭沾污處 酒店打工，再用冷水洗淨。４．用酵素洗衣粉除去血漬效果甚佳。５．若沾汙時間較長，可用10％的氨水或3％的雙氧水揩拭汙處，再用冷水洗。如仍不乾淨，再用10-15％的草酸溶液洗滌，最後用清水漂洗。６．新跡，陳跡，均可用硫磺皂揉搓清洗。７．用護手霜塗抹在血跡上，停留15分鐘時間，再 保濕面膜用肥皂清洗即可。８．冷水先清理一下污跡的部位，待血跡轉淡之後再以沾有洗潔精或雙氧水的布來擦拭即可。如果血跡很難清除，可先用肥皂泡一夜，隔天再洗效果更佳！＊紅、紫藥水1．紅藥水漬可先用白醋洗，然後用清水漂淨。2．可先將藥水污處浸濕以甘油刷洗，再用含氨皂液反復洗，若再無法去除可加入 西裝幾滴稀醋酸液，再用肥皂洗，可去除。＊碘酒１．對碘酒漬可先用澱粉浸濕揉擦（澱粉遇碘立即呈黑色），再用肥皂水洗去。２．淡的碘漬可用熱水或酒精，也可用碘化鉀溶液搓拭。濃漬可浸入15-20％的蘇打溫熱的溶液中，約2小時左右，再用清水漂洗。＊茶漬、咖啡漬１．被茶、咖啡污染的衣服，可立即用熱水洗滌便可除去 租屋網。２．舊茶跡，可用濃食鹽水浸洗，或用氨水與甘油混合液(1:10)揉洗。３．絲和毛織物禁用氨水，可用10％的甘油溶液揉搓，再用洗滌劑洗後用沖淨。４．在污漬處塗上甘油，再撒上些硼砂，用熱水浸洗。５．亦可用稀釋的氨水、硼砂加溫水擦拭。６．舊咖啡跡可用3％的雙氧水溶液揩拭，再以清水洗淨。７．舊茶及咖啡跡，可用甘油和蛋黃混合 酒店工作溶液擦拭，稍乾後用清水漂淨。＊墨汁 用飯粒和洗潔劑攪拌塗抹後，再加以搓揉洗淨。＊油漆１．清涼油抹到粘有油漆的部位，之後沖洗乾淨即可。２．若沾上水溶性漆、或乳膠漆，及時用水一洗即掉。３．尼龍織物被油漆沾污，可先塗上豬油揉搓，然後用洗滌劑浸洗，清水漂淨。＊黴點、黴菌天氣悶熱空氣潮濕，或換季時，洗過的衣服很容易長黴點，特別是白色?買屋漲蝒A。１．先在日光下曬後，用刷子彈落，浸在稀釋200倍的廚房用洗潔劑半天即可 ２．把嫩嫩的綠豆芽放在黴點上，雙手搓揉，再搓到黴點消失了，最後再用清水沖洗。３．衣物上的黴斑可先在日光下暴曬，後用刷子清黴毛，再用酒精洗除。４．把被黴斑污染的衣服放入濃肥皂水中浸透後，帶著皂水取出，置陽光下反復浸曬幾次，待黴斑清除後，再用清水漂淨。５．絲綢衣物可 室內裝潢用檸檬酸洗滌後，用冷水洗。６．麻織物的黴漬，可以氯化鈣液進行清洗。７．毛織品上的污漬還可用芥末溶液或硼砂溶液清洗。（一桶水中加芥末二湯匙或硼砂二湯匙）８．此法限用於白色衣物。可用2％的肥皂酒精溶液擦拭，然後用漂白劑3-5％的次氯酸鈉或用雙氧水擦拭，最後再洗淨。陳跡可在溶液中浸泡1小時再洗。 ◎大紀元（不定時陸續補上） http://www.twbbs.net.tw/2209360.html 帛琉  .

          吞水提肛法 吞水提肛法 吞水提肛法 老和尚看得出來已經有年紀，但身子骨很硬朗，五臺山的小路上坡下坡，幾個回合 酒店兼職，我們已經累得肺都要嘔出來， 老和尚仍然笑咪咪，搖動?酒店工作陘l在前面等我們。 我問老和尚：「老人家高壽有幾？」 老和尚擺擺手， 買房子笑咪咪地說：「年齡這東西，不要被數字騙了，你想多年輕便多年輕，想多老便多老。」我記得那 結婚西裝位一百一十二歲的人瑞許哲也曾經這樣說。「那麼，老人家有甚麼養生妙訣？」我又隨口問。我以為老和尚會說?21世紀房屋仲介G「也沒有妙訣，無事打坐敲經便是養生。」結果老和尚認真地想了想，說：「不過每天早上喝第一杯水的時候，喝得很慢，一杯 裝潢水分三十小口，到五十小口，越多越好，每吞一口，提肛一次。」我問：「是怕嗆了吧？」老和尚說：「倒不是，是鍛練喉嚨吞嚥的肌肉。有些老?酒肉朋友~人會吞嚥困難，每天堅持鍛練，老來便舒服多了。」 原來是這樣！我想起我的老母親，輪椅坐久之後，吞嚥也開始有困難。「為甚麼要吞水的時候同時提肛？」我問。 建築設計老和尚說：「提肛便是收縮肛門，不要以為肛門與喉嚨隔得遠便沒有關連，它們的肌腱是相連的！」 我注意到下肢逐漸衰弱的人，吞嚥能力也隨之減弱。 老和尚說的這個鍛練吞嚥肌肉?網路行銷滲絨Z，應該讓多點人知道。    .msgcontent .wsharing ul li { text-indent: 0; } 分享 Facebook Plurk YAHOO! 九份民宿  .

          未來1年 緬甸恐3萬人死於愛滋 未來1年 緬甸恐3萬人死於愛滋 2009-03-22 中國時報 【梁東屏／曼谷廿一日電】 　緬甸是東南亞唯一的內陸國家，對外本來就較為隔絕，再加上幾十年 面膜來都在軍政府 近乎「鎖國」的統治下，就更加的封閉，許多狀況都不太為外界所明瞭，包括近年來由於醫療進步、已不再 酒店工作是這麼可怕的愛滋病，在緬甸卻猖獗到了十分嚴重的地步。 　而諷刺的是，造成這個現象的主要原因，竟是該國軍政府 完全忽視人民的基?關鍵字廣告鄞敻曮O障。 　幾乎是唯一在緬甸進行醫療援助的「無疆界醫師組織（ＭＳＦ）」最近發表報告，指稱如果再不立即採取積極行動，未來一年內，全緬甸 西裝外套將會有三萬人死於愛滋病。 　去年，全緬甸有兩萬五千人死於愛滋病。「無疆界醫師組織」在仰光的負責人史密垂斯警告說，未來的幾年內，緬甸會有將近廿五萬人面臨死於愛 信用貸款滋的危險，其中約七萬五千人需要獲得立即的「抗逆轉病毒」治療。 　「抗逆轉病毒療法」俗稱「雞尾酒療法」，這種療法無法治癒愛滋病，但能有效將愛滋病毒抑制在很低的程度，使患 網路行銷者仍然能過正常的生活。 　史密垂斯指出，至目前為止，前述的七萬五千名病患中，大約只有一萬五千人獲得「抗逆轉病毒」治療，單單「無疆界醫師組織」就負責了一萬一千人，緬甸政府的衛生部門在過去 房屋買賣兩年內，只為一千八百名愛滋病患提供了「抗逆轉病毒」治療，其他則由非政府組織負責。 　尤有甚者，按照緬甸的最新規定，「無疆界醫師組織」今後只能為在診所登記有案的病患提供醫療。如此一來，勢必大量限縮「無疆?ARMANI匟摰v組織」所能提供的醫療救助。 　緬甸目前的愛滋病蔓延情況，已經是亞洲最嚴重。與周邊國家相較，緬甸在這方面所獲得的國際援助顯然較少。寮國及柬埔寨的愛滋病患平均每人能獲得四十至五十美元的國際 醫療援助，緬甸的病患僅有?整合負債ㄗ洶T美元。 　最主要的原因是國際社會對緬甸軍政府沒有信心，不相信他們會有效、公平地把援助分發給真正需要的人而不中飽私囊。 http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,110504+112009032200138,00.h 找房子tml  .

          Meetings with Aung San Suu Kyi Meetings with Aung San Suu KyiBy Razali IsmailApril 2007Former UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail sought to negotiate between the opposition party and the military regime from 2000 until 2005. He recalls his meetings with Burma’s most famous prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi. In early 2006, I resigned as the United Nations Secretary General’s Special Envoy to Myanmar [Burma]. By that time, I had been to Myanmar 14 times, stretched out over a period of four years. The first visit was in 2000 when the United Nations sent me there with a delegation on my first mission. It was then that I met Aung San Suu Kyi and the Myanmar Secretary One, Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt. It was he who arranged for me to see her. It was the middle of June, the monsoon period, and very hot and humid.I was taken in a government car to University Avenue where Suu Kyi stayed. We waited in a room on whose wall hung a huge painting of Suu Kyi’s late father. I was aware of the significance of the moment as I sat there. I knew that something very special was about to impact on my life. After a period of waiting she emerged, cool and composed, in a traditional blue blouse and sarong, with bunga melor (jasmine flower) in her hair. Call it a grand entrance, if you like. She was polite and dignified, placing me on her right as she sat with me on a semicircular settee, her back ramrod straight. It was one of those settees without backs, the kind that tends to make one slouch if one is not careful, and it made me painfully aware of my own posture, sitting beside her with her back straight as a 東森房屋dancer.Subconsciously, I felt obliged to match her posture, losing the battle, however, and slouching as the discussion went on. There was no question about it —she looked very attractive, what with the scent of the melor in the air at close quarters. At an early part of my conversation with her, I said, “You are not only courageous but also attractive.” It was obviously an unthinkable faux pas. But despite what I had heard and read about her from reports and earlier encounters between her and a UN representative (I was forewarned that she was glacial), we got along very well from the start. It helped that I was clearly open, held no preconceived ideas and did not make judgments on her. By the end of a two-hour chat, during which time she did not bend at all (perhaps symbolic of her uprightness in terms of her principles), a basis for an ongoing relationship had already developed. From the beginning, Suu Kyi was interested in understanding how far the UN would go in helping her and the NLD [National League for Democracy] and how far Asean was willing to stick its neck out. On Asean, her basic instincts can be said to have been proven right. Asean has been neither here nor there in its interest and commitments. Constructive engagement was never really constructive, and there was no sustained engagement. As for the UN, I went beyond my brief in order to open up the issues for us to re-examine together. She believed wholeheartedly in the rule of law and hoped that the UN would equally commit to that in helpin 術後面膜g Myanmar. In that sense, the UN has done less than deliver. In most cases, I had two meetings with her per visit—once after seeing the government and hearing their views and once again after speaking with the government. What did we talk about? Our discussions covered, obviously, issues of reconciliation, the rights of various ethnic parties, the future role of the military, etc. But the times with her were very rich. Conversation meandered to other subjects like life, culture, humanity, law and rights. The Lady (Suu Kyi is affectionately referred to thus across the country) really can talk. She impressed me, surprised me, that despite her years of detention she had managed to keep track of virtually everything, including UN developments and those in the world. She even told me that she had been re-examining the Myanmar constitution in readiness for the difficult negotiations ahead toward national reconciliation and democracy. At that time, Khin Nyunt was in the ascendancy and understood the necessary ties between Myanmar and the UN better than the rest of the Tatmadaw [the military]. Khin Nyunt also did his best to make me see and understand what the military leadership was contributing to the country. I had to sit for hours listening to this minister or that minister about the achievements of Myanmar—how many roads, how many bridges, etc. Khin Nyunt also allowed me to speak to the senior government servants, including the Foreign Ministry, of course, and I grabbed the chance to say to them, “What’s wrong with you 賣房子r diplomatic skills, even Cambodia can get more money than you. North Korea is more successful than you in gaining assistance to the country. But you,” I told them, “what’s wrong with you?” This embarrassed them a bit, which was my purpose. So Suu Kyi was happy and grew to hope for results from my visits. I had done my homework and discovered that the past UN representative had had more difficulty talking to her than to the government in certain instances. Perhaps my straightforward style put her more at ease. Whatever it was, there was a developing rapport between us that seemed, perhaps in her mind, to give her permission to just talk to me honestly about the problems that plagued her and her beloved country. So she talked about her struggles, what she had been doing, when she came back from England what happened to her, how she was reluctantly, as she said, induced into the struggle for democracy but just to visit the country of her birth, also because somebody was not well in her family. So it was not as if she was intending to follow in her famous father’s footsteps. But it was clear that she was, certainly, her father’s daughter. I do not speak Burmese, but for my purposes it was unnecessary to know the language, for Suu Kyi spoke impeccable English. In fact, if she were invisible on the other side of a room and you heard her speak, you would have thought that it was some English person talking. Imagine—the unbending posture, traditional dress, flowers in the hair, and then, the Queen’s English—certainly a heady combination. An 西裝外套d she knew it. That is why, together with the grand entrances and the wealth of her knowledge, she always made a huge impression. In fact, I once told her that if she ever became prime minister, she could give the other Asean prime ministers a run for their money debating democracy and development. I encouraged, or rather, pleaded for Suu Kyi to find ways to talk to the military leaders. In turn, I pleaded with the government to speak to her. By my second visit, Senior General Than Shwe agreed that there would be talks between them and her, and that Gen Khin Nyunt would coordinate on the government’s behalf. The talks did indeed happen between the two sides if not directly between Suu Kyi and Khin Nyunt. Curiously, she kept this a secret from me, and it was only many visits later, on the verge of her detention being lifted, that Khin Nyunt told me, even showing me photographs of her at dinner with the entire phalanx of the military. I was flabbergasted, and the next afternoon when I went to see her, I said that I had a bone to pick with her. It was only then that she revealed that there had indeed been a few talks but not at the right level, not with Khin Nyunt, not satisfactory. According to Suu Kyi, the dinner with the generals was in fact a monologue with the senior general doing all the talking. Talking to the government was an exercise in trying to decipher all manner of statistics thrown at me, one after another—“we have built the 29th bridge, we have done this, we have done that,” they would say. They were, after all, a military government and as 有巢氏房屋 such their minds worked on a different level. They saw it all purely as a matter of clear, planned objectives, as if good governance were merely a matter of moving tanks from one place to another. Only after these necessary introductions concerning the junta’s success with achieving stability and order was I able to interject, to put in feelers and grope my way around the sensitive issues. Of course, in terms of statistics, what they said was indeed true—they had in fact built this road and that bridge, etc. But to what end? When I went back to see Suu Kyi, statistics melted away. There was a clear focus, and of course, hers was political—the prime objective must be to win democracy for Myanmar so that the people could understand and benefit from democracy and development, improve their lives and be protected by the rule of law. She knew how far behind Myanmar was in that sense. I asked her, “You are seen to have banded together with the West, to have adopted what the West wants; your cry for democracy, what motivates it? Is the aim of democracy to help the repressed of Myanmar or is this the exhortation of the West?” I told her that this was one of the reasons why she had alienated some of her Asean neighbors, why they looked upon her with unease. Her struggle, I said, should be manifestly seen to be one from within and not appear to be at the behest of others. She would bridle at these accusations and would often let loose about Asean—“What has Asean done? I should have gotten help from them, but what have they done? Their ambassadors are afraid to see me.” There 烤肉 had been instances when Asean had been shocked out of its complacency to act on her behalf, as when the Depayin incident occurred on 30 May 2003. In that instance, Suu Kyi and a big number of her supporters were ambushed in the northern village of Depayin. But the Asean mantra of non-interference has allowed for a situation where Asean contributes to a status quo situation much to the detriment of the people. When she was to be released from detention in 2002, one of the understandings was that she would not go out and demonstrate or speak badly of Myanmar outside. She was to help the government bring about good things for the people. But you are talking about an icon—you release her, everybody flocks to see her. She was always particular about not creating demonstrations, but after a while she could see that there was so much to be done yet so little was actually being done. With people pleading to her to help, her visits took on political overtones. She became more of a politician and started traveling farther outside of Yangon [Rangoon]. Everywhere she went, tens of thousands followed. The military leaders were disturbed. I made the point to a minister I knew for some time that it would be a mistake to let Suu Kyi travel around and not begin the critical talks between the government and the NLD. Then Depayin happened and she was nearly killed. She was unceremoniously clapped into prison. They did allow me to see her after it became untenable for them, though they never told me she was in prison. They called me, so I went. It was like one of those detective stories—they changed cars 節能燈具, changed drivers, I had no idea who the guy behind the wheel was. I got into the car and I thought, “What on earth am I doing?” I was driven farther and farther and I was all by myself. I thought, “Am I going to be safe?” There were cars with tinted windows following. Then all of a sudden, we had arrived. And what a destination it was, Insein Prison, the general prison where all manner of crooks and criminals were gathered. Pronounced like “insane,” the irony of the prison’s name was certainly not lost on me. Inside the compound, I was driven first to the left, then to the right, then finally, to a concrete hut. And there she was. In a small concrete hut with a well outside. I went in to see her and was shocked. She was dishevelled, totally unlike the vision who usually greeted me. She said to me, “I want justice, Raz,” and then turned to one of the military officials she knew who was standing beside me and commanded, “I want my clothes. From my house. I don’t want to wear these clothes that you’ve given me. And I want all my make-up to be brought to me.” I was taken aback by the fact that her humanness was betrayed by this. Then she said, amazingly, that she was prepared to turn the page for the sake of the people and reconciliation, saying she was still prepared to talk to the government. When I got back to Khin Nyunt, I was angry and sad. I said, “How can you do this? What am I supposed to tell the world?” So I kept quiet for a while and did not tell the world she was in prison. I did say that she was safe and that her spirit was strong. I told only the UN Secretary-General that she w 禮服as in prison. The last time I saw Suu Kyi was in March 2004 when she was back at her home under house arrest. She reiterated her readiness to meet the generals, despite Depayin, for the sake of the people. Suu Kyi had come a long way to realize that democracy can only be done through the generals, with the latter still in the driving seat. This realization of hers is in stark contrast to the imperious, principled and unbending Suu Kyi I had met over twenty meetings ago. She was hugely concerned as to how far behind Myanmar was compared to its neighbors. She was equally disturbed by the fact that other ethnic groups were not given a level playing field, the Rohingyas, for example. I was unable, to the very end, to make the generals recognize and acknowledge the changes in Suu Kyi. Than Shwe continued to label her as a marionette of the West and quite recently efforts are afoot to make Suu Kyi irrelevant to Myanmar. I think that Than Shwe sees me as being close to Khin Nyunt, which is true, because since he allowed us to work together, we developed a good relationship. Since I am viewed as being part of him or his period, I know they would not want me. Thus my resignation as the UN special envoy is timely and allows them to consider someone else. It is a pity, though, I have built a broad base of useful contacts with Khin Nyunt and the others, including the ethnic groups, and these same people might come back to power. Now looking back, I cannot help but feel that we did not do enough to ensure the continuing survival and role of Khin Nyunt. So with Myanmar, I do not see any prospects of change, as there are no 關鍵字排名 internal dynamics operating there. So the Lady languishes in detention for God knows how much longer, one season after another, from the monsoon, the cool season and the mango showers. I do not know how she does it, but I do know that she will remain unbowed under all circumstances. It is not personal freedom that she is after. She will only accept this if it comes with freedom for her beloved people. I remember when she was in prison just after the Depayin incident. Her son Alexander contacted me to say that he would like to visit his mother. So I said I would try. When I posed the question to her, she immediately responded with a firm denial, saying that she was no different than any of the others there in prison. She said, “Why should I be treated differently? Why should my child be allowed to see his mother when there are countless others who never see their unjustly imprisoned mothers again for the rest of their lives?” Such is Suu Kyi, fortified by her strong principles. Even as I write this, I can see her sitting on that settee, back straight, calm. Awaiting the time when there can be talks or meaningful changes. But does time wait even though she believes she has time on her side? The intransigence of the military and the ineffectiveness of Asean do not provide hopeful signs. But the scent of her bunga melor lingers yet, and she continues to wait, upright, undeterred, in her house. And the people wait with her. This article is an excerpt from Number One Wisma Putra published by the Institute of Diplomacy and Foreign Relations of Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2006 http://www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=6886 澎湖民宿&z=102  .

          無煙硝戰爭 俄喬衝突網路延燒 （鄭宇欽） 二00八年喬治亞與俄羅斯八月衝突至今已屆滿一週年，雖無戰火無情之慮，但 喬俄對立情結至今並無隨停火協議，劃下句點。二00九年八月六、七、八等三日，微網誌網站Twitter、Facebook、Plurk均受到網路駭客攻 擊，造成服務中斷。據英國衛報指出，這些微網誌網站服務中斷的原因歸咎於，一名同時擁有Twitter、Facebook、LiveJournal、 Youtube與Google Blogger等微網誌帳號的喬治亞籍經濟學講師Georgy，在其部落格上用Cyxymu筆名，針對喬俄八月衝突一事發表「喜喬厭俄」的觀點，逕而引起 俄國網友的不滿，並憤而冒用其帳號，大量寄發病毒信件造成微網誌網站癱瘓。 由於近年來微網誌具有「簡單操作、交友迅速」的特點，不但深受年輕人喜愛，也漸漸地廣泛被政經要員、企業團體與非營利事業團體採用，作為廣告、人資與物資 動員的聯絡工具之一。甚至微 日月潭民宿網誌工具，也逐漸扮演媒體傳播的重要角色；尤其當電視與電台頻道受到控制時，民眾透過微網誌網站將第一手訊息傳遞給全世界， 如：二00四喬治亞玫瑰革命、二00八年中國爆發西藏危機與二00九伊朗大選爭議，就是透過此方式傳遞當時的政局情勢。  由於微網誌其快速且不易控制傳遞訊息的特色，不但成為公共論壇也成為公共戰場。微網誌網站Twitter、Facebook與Plurk因成為喬俄八月衝 突的公共論壇進，逕而成為網路駭客攻擊的公共戰場；這一場駭客攻擊，造成全球近二億人無法使用Twitter與Facebook，不僅如此，由於微網誌業 者近年來紛紛加入競爭對手的系統整合計畫，因此當登入一個微網誌網站，即可同時登入多種微網誌網站。雖然僅Twitter與Facebook網站遭受攻 擊，但其他微網誌網站也因這波駭客攻擊事件中斷服務，造成全球近三億人無法使用微網 麻辣鍋誌網站，造成不小的經濟損失。喬俄衝突緣由  長期以來，南奧塞堤地區一直是喬治亞與俄國產生衝突的引爆點。一九二0年代南奧塞堤地區一直希望能夠脫離喬治亞爭取獨立，但因蘇聯介入，南奧塞堤地區最後 還是成為喬治亞的領土。一九八九年蘇聯垮臺，南奧塞堤地區提出加入北奧塞堤地區之提議，積極爭取獨立，但喬治亞Gamsakhurdia強勢介入使得南奧 塞堤地區無法獨立，但也種下南奧塞堤人仇視喬治亞的情結。一九九一年南奧塞堤與喬治亞爆發軍事衝突，造成近四千名死亡以及數十萬人流離失所。  一九九二年俄國介入斡旋，在南奧塞堤地區Tskhinvali市郊畫出停火安全區，並在此地區派駐軍力成立維安營。南奧塞堤地區維安營共約一千一百名軍人，係由俄國、北奧塞堤人與喬治亞人共同組成，並且歐洲安全暨合作組織（OSCE）也派駐觀察員監控。  除?麻辣火鍋馱坏~，俄國、北奧塞堤人、喬治亞人與歐洲安全暨合作組織代表共同組成聯合監控委員會（JCC）共同解決南奧塞堤問題。雖然和平暨停火協議緩和當地緊張 局勢，但無法控制南奧塞堤人與俄國政府的企圖心。二00六年南奧塞堤舉辦獨立公投，出現高達百分之九十五的投票率，並且以百分之九十九的比例贊成獨立。另 一方面，自俄國政府派駐軍隊後，俄國積極遊說南奧塞堤人成為俄國人，並且協助給予護照與公民權，甚至讓南奧塞堤人參與二00七年杜馬國會（下議院）與二 00八年俄國總統大選的投票。俄國與南奧塞堤領導人Kokoiti的行動，讓喬治亞展開一系列的維護領土完整計畫，杜絕南奧塞堤獨立。  二00四年喬治亞歷經玫瑰革命，Saakashvili總統誓言進行政經革新，並且重新取回南奧塞堤地區的控制權；Saakashvili總統派遣軍警進 駐、派且情報人員掌握當地局勢， 火鍋吃到飽甚至派且游擊隊作為機動調度武力，強勢斷絕當地非法動與組織犯罪，並且打擊親俄之南奧塞堤游擊隊。除此之 外，Saakashvili總統提出「和平三階段計畫」，從解除武裝、經濟改革與政治和解等面向，強化南奧塞堤人對喬治亞的向心力。二00七年 Saakashvili總統再提出過渡政權的提案，再度勸說南奧塞堤放棄獨立；然而這些懷柔與武攻的行動與政策，依舊無法改變南奧塞堤人的決心。  二00八年七月三日親喬治亞的南奧塞堤領導人Sanakoyev遭受到炸彈攻擊，親喬治亞的村民發動武裝還擊南奧塞堤村民，並且雙邊調動火炮密集攻擊各自 村落，造成數十人傷亡。二00八年七月五日俄國軍機飛越南奧塞堤地區機場，欲控制當地衝突；與此同時，聯合國安理會也開會討論南奧塞堤局勢，但安理會並未 做出任何決議，而俄國特使Churkin則控訴安理會親喬治亞立場過分鮮明。  在此同時，南 盤纏銀兩奧塞堤地區並未因受到安理會關注，進而節制衝突；反倒是不斷地爆發炸彈與火炮攻擊事件，死傷人數持續增加。喬治亞為控制當地衝突情勢，並派出 軍隊介入；雖順利遏止衝突，但俄國Medvedev總統認為基於保護南奧塞堤兒童與婦女安全、提供人道救援並且保護俄國公民以及信守俄國成為高加索地區的 守護者之承諾，俄國決定派軍前往南奧塞堤地區保護居民。二00八年八月八日，喬俄雙方正式交戰。喬俄交戰衝擊  二00八年八月八日俄國Medvedev總統於其國安會發表演說，表明派遣軍隊進入南奧塞堤地區保護俄國公民安全。俄軍機採用密集且精準打擊空戰戰術，首 先摧毀喬治亞Vaziana與Marneuli軍機場，阻絕喬治亞空軍行動力，並且俄軍結合南北奧塞堤軍閥，掌握戰場管理，消迷戰爭之霧帶來的損傷；除此 之外，俄軍運用空襲戰術，堅壁清野式地摧毀任何戰略、戰術建築，阻絕任何軍民兩用物資，並且控制構立市（Gori） 金瓜石民宿建立前進基地，孤立喬治亞首都特彼理西 （Tbilisi）。  由於俄軍順利掌握空權，使得喬治亞節節敗退，另一方面，俄國黑海艦隊採用「禁航」戰術，擊沈任何一艘欲出航的喬治亞軍艦，不僅抑制喬國海軍站立，也斷絕喬 國海上補給線，讓喬治亞無法自行補給也無法受到國際援助。迫於局勢壓力，喬治亞國安會羅馬亞（Lomaia）秘書長敦請美國國務卿萊絲擔任協調人，希冀透 過外交斡旋的方式，達成喬俄停火協議並且要求俄國撤軍。另一方面，法國時任歐盟輪值主席國，對於喬俄衝突可能引發全歐危機一事，十分重視。  薩科吉總統提出「和平六點」協議，提出：（一）雙方消弭敵意，（二）雙邊撤軍至衝突位發生的地區，（三）雙邊准許人道援助進入衝突區，（四）准許安置難 民，（五）俄國軍隊撤軍，但可留下維安軍力，（六）國際討論如何穩定與保護南奧塞堤與阿博哈吉亞（Abkhazia）地區安全。對這項提議喬治亞除了做出 增加列入禁航區與 九份民宿緩衝區這兩點訴求外，原則上願意接受這項停火協議。但是俄國確認為，應尊重南奧塞堤地區追求獨立的意願，除了部份接受這項協議，俄國隨即 宣佈承認南奧塞堤獨立，並且著手選派大使，其後瓜地馬拉也隨即承認。  俄國的舉動，引起歐美各國不滿，也造成北約俄國高峰會停止運作長達一年之久。俄國原寄望上海合作組織會員國與前蘇聯共黨國家會跟進承認南奧塞堤獨立，但是 這些國家卻沒有任何動作。另一方面，俄國雖同意歐盟提出的停火協議，但是對於撤軍一事卻擱置研議，僅做出部份撤軍的承諾。此次喬俄戰爭，造成數百軍民死 亡、數千人受傷，以及數萬人流離失所之外，造成南奧塞堤地區極大的公共設施與經濟活動損害之外，更讓喬治亞的國內生產總值從九個百分點驟降至三點五個百分 點，對其政經局造成極大的衝擊。  為求南奧塞堤地區戰後順利重建，俄國、喬治亞、美國、歐盟、聯合國與歐洲安全合作組織，組成「三加三對談」共同商討南奧 澎湖民宿塞堤地區局勢與監督停火協議進程。 在此同時，「三加三對談」建立「事故預防與反應機制」，避免零星衝突再次演變成大規模戰爭。雖然「三加三對談」順利立控制南奧塞堤地區動盪局勢，並且成功 達成喬俄軍事停火協議；但是，喬俄雙邊人民對立的情緒並未隨之消去。虛擬攻防延續對立  喬俄人民對立的情緒，雖看不見煙硝戰火，但卻在網路虛擬空間上展開無煙硝的戰爭。任教於喬治亞蘇戶米大學的經濟學講師Georgy長期在所屬部落格針對喬 俄戰爭一事，撰寫親喬厭俄的文章。他在文章指出，喬俄戰爭是俄國片面進行侵略戰爭，破壞喬治亞領土完整；犀利的文詞，使他的部落格隨即成為親俄駭客的攻擊 目標。  Facebook首席安全執行長凱利（Max Kelly）指出，駭客是用分散阻斷式服務攻擊（DDOS）方式，利用Georgy的帳號寄並透過他擁有的Twitter、Facebook、 LiveJournal、Youtube與Google Blogger等帳號，寄出夾帶殭尸病毒的電子郵件，給相關朋友形成「網絡式」攻擊，造成所?清境雪L網誌網路癱瘓，甚至一度造成Google搜尋引擎癱瘓，造 成不小的經濟損失。這次攻擊是件事是最大一次網路社群攻擊事件，造成全球達近三億人無法使用微網誌服務。近年來微網誌網路社群受到眾多政經要員、企業團體 與非營利團體重視，因此此次的網路攻擊事件，受到國際社會的高度矚目。  高加索區域的穩定，關係著俄國國家發展的利益。除了俄國破除後冷戰圍堵的戰略計算外，當地亦是油管輸送的要塞。雖然和平六點協議能抑制外表的仇恨與敵意， 但是網路社群的世界卻掩飾不住喬俄人民對立的情緒。這不僅凸顯出網路世界的無政府窘態，而未來極度依賴網路作業的政府與人民，增加被無政府窘態吞噬的機 率。筆者認為，喬俄網路攻擊事件不是謝幕，而是啟發各國未來透入微網誌網路社群攻防的序幕。（本文刊登在青年日報全球戰略觀察專欄，2009.12.3，第7版） .msgcontent .wsharing ul li { text-indent: 0; } 分享 Facebook Plurk YAHOO! 汽車美容  .

          台灣能寄望「溫鮑主義」嗎？ 美國空軍大學最近新辦的《戰略研究季刊》(Strategic Studies Quarterly)中刊登了美國空軍戰院教授瑞可爾(Jeffrey Record)的大作「重回溫柏格－鮑爾主義？」(Back to the Weinberger-Powell Doctrine? )。所謂的「溫鮑主義」指的是1980年代及1990年代初由美國國防部長溫柏格(Caspar Weinberger)與參謀聯席會主席鮑爾(Colin Powell)所提 裝潢出的主張。溫柏格認為軍力並不是外交的手段，而只是一種在外交失靈時才能使用的工具，並且應該是最後的手段。鮑爾在1989年被任命為參謀聯席會主席後，也十分認同溫柏格的想法，特別是用兵必須迅速與果決的原則。對於「溫鮑主義」的支持者來說，1991年速戰速決的波灣戰爭可以說是一個典範。 簡 信用卡代償單來說，「溫鮑主義」可以歸納為六大主張，包括： 一、美國不應輕易在海外用兵，除非是在美國重大(vital)國家利益遭到危害時。 二、如果一旦決定要用兵，就應全心全力地力求獲得勝利。 三、美國在決定用兵前，必須要有明確的政治與軍事目標。 四、用兵規模必須經常評估與調整。 五、美國在承諾海外用兵時， 九份民宿必須先在國內獲得廣泛的民意與國會支持。 六、兵力的使用必須是最後手段。 在這個時候提到「溫鮑主義」，當然是因為美國在伊拉克陷入泥沼之故。批評者認為美國在伊拉克的戰事變成持久戰、越南化，是因為自己的政治與軍事目的不明確、投入兵力又不足，以致造成美軍進退失據，也失去了民意支持。或許可以這麼說，「溫鮑 酒店經紀主義」就是美國部份人士對於2003年以來美國進行反恐戰爭的反省(lesson from the global war on terror)，也是對於未來美軍用兵政策的修正，在將來可能會有越來越多人支持這樣的看法。 可惜的是，即使美國政府未來真的接受了「溫鮑主義」，仍然不見得能更有效率地解決戰爭的問題。這是因為「溫鮑主義」原本就有本質上的缺點，也需要更進一步的評 賣房子估。如果應用在台海的例子上，台灣恐怕難以寄望「溫鮑主義」能夠強化自身與區域安全。 首先，所謂「重大利益」(vital interest)的內容為何本來很難加以界定。在理論上，一般認為「重大利益」應該牽涉到美國本土的安全。不過在實踐上，當美國總統決定要出兵之時，總是會將該場戰爭證成並宣傳為關係到美國的「重大利益」，有關於「重大利益」的界定因此也越來越具?術後面膜釭岌釧吽C不論如何，如果台灣能讓發生台海戰爭時的美國總統認為具有「重大利益」，那就等於跨過了一道重要門檻。困難而重要的是，台灣必須讓美國持續相信協防台灣符合美國的「重大利益」，台灣不是美國「重大利益」的破壞者。 其次，雖然明確的政治與軍事目標是「溫鮑主義」的重要主張，但現實情況可能無法確保「心想事成」，也就是沒有辦法保證前訂之政治與軍事目標一定能夠 情趣用品實現。美國對於台海戰爭一向主張的是「有限的戰略目標」(limited strategic aims)，速戰速決；同時也想定中共也是如此盤算，所以即使發生戰事，亦當不致曠日持久。不過戰爭的過程原本就難以估計，意外、誤判甚至升級都有可能。台海戰爭一旦爆發，不見得會是第二個波灣戰爭。 第三，民意如流水，即使在戰爭初期能夠獲得廣泛支持，但也不能保證一直都能維持如此。尤其甚者，當戰爭開始拖延、泥沼 東森房屋化的時候，民意支持通常也會隨之降低，這在韓戰、越戰、以及伊拉克反恐戰爭中都是如此。台灣民眾所寄望的，是一旦台海發生戰爭後能夠迅速結束。若是戰事開始拖延，不僅彈丸之地的台灣難以承受，恐怕美國國內反戰的民意也會迫使美國撤軍。前車之鑑，若是美國在這樣的情況下撤兵，對於台灣是絕對不利的。 隨著美軍實力的獨強，美國的敵人不可能再用以往兵力相對(force on force)的方式直接面對美軍的挑戰。 信用卡代償要能擊敗美國，首要就是要從政治面先摧毀美國的作戰意志與國內民眾支持，之後再輔以持久戰與不對稱作戰的方式來取得軍事勝利。這三大策略是根本，或許也是唯一的方法能夠擊敗所向無敵的美軍。解放軍對此知之甚詳，而對於美國來說，不管有沒有採取「溫鮑主義」恐怕都難以有效因應。 本文刊於東森電子報 .msgcontent .wsharing ul li { text-indent: 0; } 分享 Facebook Plurk YAHOO! 買房子  .